Month after month this 12 months now we have seen the vacationer numbers develop. In early September, I assessed the state of affairs as had been reached by July. “If the pattern as much as July this 12 months continues, the annual document just isn’t solely going to be crushed, it will be obliterated.” I wasn’t flawed.
I by no means subscribed for one second to a view that 2023 would ultimately be lower than an excellent 12 months. All speak about costs and competitor locations dimming prospects was misplaced – because it has so usually been prior to now. The historical past of tourism in Mallorca and the Balearics within the twenty-first century has been considered one of speak of precisely the identical worth and competitors dynamics. And it has constantly been confirmed to be flawed.
When the ecotax was launched in 2002, the hoteliers voiced their considerations in regards to the tax however however got here out with exactly the identical stuff as they do these days. The islands don’t compete on worth. The islands should wager on high quality, on popularity, on loyalty, on safety.
A distinction to twenty years in the past is that the wager on high quality has change into evident. The numbers of three and four-star motels have been completely reversed in favour of the latter, whereas five-star, uncommon again then, has grown. It is to not say that there could not come some extent when worth and competitors forces do result in a downward pattern, however 2023 has proven that they have not performed an element. A lot in order that I am staggered by fairly how a lot the vacationer numbers have risen this 12 months.
The off-season is not actually an amazing indicator, however January, February and March this 12 months all pointed to one thing uncommon – an unusually excessive degree of development. This has been maintained for the entire 12 months, or at the very least as much as October, which is the month for which now we have figures. The bombshell of October was that the cumulative variety of vacationers for the 12 months was not solely larger than for the entire of 2018 (the document 12 months), it had eclipsed 2018 by nearly 700,000.
At 17.24 million vacationers within the Balearics for the ten months (11.96 million in Mallorca, nearly a million greater than 2022), the chance exists that the entire 12 months would possibly get near 18 million; in November and December 2022 there have been some 530,000 vacationers. Eighteen million, that is a hell of a determine. Twenty years in the past there have been 10.26 million; ten years in the past, 13 million.
Setting apart 2020 and 2021 due to the pandemic, development from 2013 appeared to have reached a type of plateau. There have been fewer vacationers in 2019. Not by a lot, however the quantity was however down. In 2022, the entire was similar to 2019 – decrease by solely round 400 – and the then tourism minister, Iago Negueruela, was nearly self-congratulatory in having presided over a decrease quantity. Sure, however he ignored the truth that Covid had nonetheless been a difficulty firstly of 2022. With out these restrictions, 2022 would fairly most likely have been an all-time document 12 months.
It has been stated usually sufficient that pent-up demand for holidays and financial savings made due to the pandemic produced the extent of tourism there was in 2022. For 2023, some reckoned that the post-pandemic dynamic would run out of steam. The identical is being stated for 2024. We’ll see, however within the meantime, how does one clarify the expansion in 2023? It has been distinctive.
Perhaps there was residual post-pandemic demand, however in any other case it’s the case that removed from vacationer numbers being someway and magically redistributed to months aside from the high-summer season, they’ve elevated for each month. The brand new Partido In style authorities appears to share the earlier authorities’s hope on this redistribution. The hoteliers do as effectively. However this hasn’t occurred. Sure, there was a slight fall within the common size of keep, which might point out extra vacationers due to availability, however I am extra inclined to consider that the true clue as to development is buried within the figures for kind of lodging.
It is onerous to get a precise image for this as a result of statistical standards have modified, however now there are figures which clearly distinguish between what’s termed ‘market lodging’ and ‘non-market lodging’. The latter contains folks’s properties – second properties used not simply by house owners but additionally by household and associates. It’s also a reference to unregulated lodging. Of the 17.24 million guests as much as end-October, 2.98 million stayed in non-market lodging, 898,000 of whom had been in folks’s personal properties, an astonishing quantity in itself when one thinks about it.
Is that this the prime purpose for the expansion? It’s definitely a determine that can not be ignored, and my guess is that even when the present authorities is publicly joyous (not that it has achieved something to create this development), it could be privately involved. Such numbers of vacationers this 12 months are sure to additional gas the debate about sustainability, and a possible 1.5 million extra for the entire 12 months actually ought to train minds, particularly whether it is development on account of an absence of regulation.
