NFL Week 18 picks: Banking on Belichick, Bears and Payments as Greatest Bets

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BEST BETS

NEW YORK JETS (6-10) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (4-12)

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LINE: New England by 1.5

CHEWABLE: One in all three video games this week wherein all that’s at stake is draft positioning. Jets appeared like they had been getting a head begin on the low season with final season’s listless 17-point loss to the Browns. Trevor Siemian, who is best suited to play quarterback within the new UFL, will make his third straight begin for Gang Inexperienced. He’ll deliver the Jets nowhere quick in opposition to a Patriots defence that has given up much less complete yardage than all however 5 groups … Even the widely harmful Breece Corridor could have hassle with New England’s second-ranked run defence. In the one sport he has performed in opposition to the Patriots, Corridor carried the ball 12 instances for 18 yards and caught one cross for 9 … The Patriots are coming off a hard-fought loss to the Payments and have gained solely twice of their final 9, however they’ve been in each sport since Week 5 … Not liking Bailey Zappe’s probabilities in opposition to the Jets’ fourth-ranked cross defence, particularly after he was picked off thrice in Buffalo, however the Patriots have gained their final 15 video games in opposition to the Jets and have gone 25 video games with out shedding to them in regulation time, and oh yeah, this might very effectively be Invoice Belichick’s final sport as New England’s coach. The defensive genius is just not going out with a loss to the second-worst offence within the NFL.

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TAKING: NEW ENGLAND -1.5

SCORE (O/U 30.5): Patriots 17, Jets 7

CHICAGO BEARS (7-9) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-8)

LINE: Inexperienced Bay by 3

CHEWABLE: How acquainted. The Packers win they usually’re in, simply because the case of their regular-season finale final yr on Wisconsin’s most well-known piece of Frozen Tundra. That evening their Aaron Rodgers-led offence managed to maneuver the ball simply 291 yards in a 20-16 loss to the Lions, who missed the playoffs however gained eight of their final 10 to complete 9-8 and set the tone for his or her 2023 marketing campaign … The Bears are additionally gathering momentum for subsequent season with 5 wins of their final seven video games with three of their final 4 victories by double digits … Chicago has dropped its final 9 and 26 of its final 30 in opposition to the Packers, in addition to the final seven at Lambeau. The Packers scored a 38-20 season-opening win at Soldier Discipline and are coming off a powerful and thorough 23-point win in Minnesota to set the stage for this week … Packers operating again Aaron Jones lastly has rediscovered his outdated kind. In his final two video games he has averaged six yards per carry whereas taking the ball 41 instances for 247 yards. Now he goes up in opposition to the NFL’s No. 1 defence, which has allowed a median of 84 dashing yards per sport … The Packers have the Twenty eighth-ranked rush defence, and the Bears have the second ranked floor sport … The Packers will miss suspended CB Jaire Alexander on the subject of containing D.J. Moore, who’s contemporary off a nine-catch, 159-yard sport … Justin Fields is speaking about how good it will be for the Bears to finish on a optimistic at Lambeau, the place “their followers will likely be loud as a result of there’s not a lot to do in Inexperienced Bay besides watch soccer.” Brash, eh? … I’m going with the higher staff.

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TAKING: CHICAGO +3

SCORE (O/U 44): Bears 27, Packers 17

BUFFALO BILLS (10-6) at MIAMI DOLPHINS (11-5)

LINE: Buffalo by 3

CHEWABLE: At stake is the AFC East title, however whereas the Dolphins have already got secured a playoff berth, the Payments can end anyplace from the No. 2 seed to No. 6, No, 7 or out of the post-season image altogether. Together with having the motivational edge, the Payments have been in dash mode, profitable their final 4 video games, whereas their solely loss in six went to time beyond regulation … The Dolphins are actually limping to the end line. They’re coming off a 56-19 loss to the Ravens and their damage report is loaded with stars. Distinctive edge rushers Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips are on the IR, and amongst different key personnel who might miss this one are CB Xavien Howard, RB Raheem Mostert and WR Jaylen Waddle. Tua Tagovailoa additionally has a sore shoulder. If he performs he gained’t be at one hundred pc … The Payments weathered an early storm of main accidents however at the moment are in comparatively fine condition. Josh Allen is a bit of banged up however there’s no approach he’ll miss this one, as a lot Miami would possibly want he would. Allen has owned the Fish with a 9-2 document that features a 65% completion fee, 31 TD passes and simply 5 picks … The Dolphins are 1-4 SU in opposition to groups with profitable data this season … The Payments have gained 12 of the final 14 conferences between the groups, together with a 48-20 pounding in Week 4, and I’d guess a considerable quantity on that development persevering with. Solely having to put three factors with Buffalo looks like an end-of-season present from the bookmakers.

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TAKING: BUFFALO -3

SCORE (O/U 49.5): Payments 37, Dolphins 17

THE REST

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (9-7) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (13-3)

LINE: Pittsburgh by 3.5

CHEWABLE: Whereas Baltimore has locked up the highest seed within the AFC, there are 5 eventualities wherein the Steelers could make the playoffs and three of them contain a win over the Ravens plus some assist, whereas a fourth includes a tie and a few assist. The Ravens will relaxation some starters, together with Lamar Jackson and Odell Beckham Jr., however these groups don’t like one another and Baltimore would relish the chance to crush Pittsburgh’s post-season hopes … The Steelers have gained six of the final seven conferences, however recently the video games have been shut. The final seven have been determined by a landing or much less whereas 4 of the final 5 have been determined by a area aim or much less … The Steelers have gained their final three video games in Baltimore, two by a area aim and one by 4 factors … Pittsburgh has gained its final two video games with an offence that has lastly come to life with 68 factors below Mason Rudolph, who has related with George Pickens 11 instances for 326 yards … Tyler Huntley is a high quality backup quarterback. However of his eight common season begins, he has seen the Steelers thrice and is 1-2 with a 59.4 completion proportion, one TD cross and three picks … Huntley has confirmed to be a harmful operating risk versus Pittsburgh with 28 carries for 127 yards … The Steelers win, however respect the hate Ravens have for them.

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TAKING: BALTIMORE +3.5

SCORE (O/U 35.5): Steelers 23, Ravens 20

HOUSTON TEXANS (9-7) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (9-7)

LINE: Houston by 1.5

CHEWABLE: The winner makes the playoffs and will even take the AFC South if Jacksonville loses to Tennessee, which is extraordinarily unlikely … The Colts have dominated the Texans over time, profitable 33 of 44 conferences with one tie … Indy defeated Houston 31-20 in Week 2 regardless of C.J. Stroud finishing 30 of 47 cross makes an attempt for 384 yards and two TDs … Zack Moss led the Colts to that victory with 18 carries for 88 yards, however the Texans have tremendously improved a run defence that was a sore spot. It’s now fourth-best within the league, which suggests Jonathan Taylor’s effectiveness will likely be minimized … Stroud returned from a two-game absence to steer Houston to a 26-3 victory over Tennessee. Anticipate him to be higher in opposition to the Seventeenth-ranked cross defence within the Texans’ first prime time sport.

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TAKING: HOUSTON -1.5

SCORE (O/U 47.5): Texans 24, Colts 21

ATLANTA FALCONS (7-9) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (8-8)

LINE: New Orleans by 3

CHEWABLE: The winterior takes the NFC South if the Bucs lose to the Panthers, which is extraordinarily unlikely … The Saints can nonetheless slip right into a wild card spot with a win and a Tampa Bay victory … The Saints have gained 9 of their final 12 conferences with Atlanta … The Falcons defeated New Orleans 24-15 in Week 12 with 228 dashing yards … The Falcons have the unenviable job of taking part in their second straight highway sport after getting crunched by the Bears … The Saints have gained three of their final 4 video games and are coming off a 10-point victory in Tampa … The Saints have gained their final two dwelling video games by a mixed rating of 52-12, however are solely 2-5 ATS at Caesars Superdome … The Falcons have misplaced three of their final 4, together with a 9-7 verdict in opposition to the Panthers … New Orleans’ Derek Carr is one of the best QB on both staff, and it’s not shut.

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TAKING: NEW ORLEANS -3

SCORE (O/U 42): Saints 21, Falcons 17

CLEVELAND BROWNS (11-5) at CINCINNATI BENGALS (8-8) 

LINE: Cincinnati by 7

CHEWABLE: Some will say this can be a tough sport to select as a result of the consequence means nothing to both group. Not likely. The Browns are locked into the No. 5 seed and can relaxation key gamers — even outdated man Joe Flacco will get the time off, and he didn’t actually have a job halfway by means of November — however the Bengals will wish to finish a really disappointing season on a optimistic word. Not nervous concerning the large unfold as a result of I like Jake Browning in opposition to Browns reserves far more than Cleveland’s Jeff Driskel, who’s 1-9 as a starter and largely will likely be throwing and handing the ball off to backups. 

TAKING: CINCINNATI -7

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SCORE (O/U 37.5): Bengals 24, Browns 14

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (9-7) at TENNESSEE TITANS (5-11)

LINE: Jacksonville by 5

CHEWABLE: Mike Vrabel is 25-14 ATS as an underdog of 3-plus factors and he’s going to make it tough for the Jaguars, who simply want a victory to win their second straight division title. Jacksonville could once more be with out QB Trevor Lawrence, whose ailing shoulder has improved to the purpose the place he was upgraded to restricted at Thursday’s follow. Final week, C.J. Beathard was solidly common because the Jags defence pitched a 26-0 shutout in opposition to the Panthers … The Titans are higher at dwelling than their 4-3 SU document signifies. They gained their first 4 at Nissan Stadium earlier than shedding their final three, all by a area aim … The Jaguars beat the Titans 34-14 in Week 11 … The Titans are 3-1-1 as a house canine whereas the Jags are 3-1-0 as an away favorite … Titans QB Will Levis (foot) returned to follow Thursday, however the Titans will likely be wonderful if they’ve to make use of Ryan Tannehill, who has a 7-3 profession document versus the Jags with a 17/3 TD cross/choose ratio. Jacksonville’s cross ‘D’ is a susceptible twenty seventh.

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TAKING: TENNESSEE +5

SCORE (O/U 40): Jaguars 20, Titans 17

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (7-9) at DETROIT LIONS (11-5)

LINE: Detroit by 3.5

CHEWABLE: The Vikings nonetheless have an out of doors shot at a playoff spot, however it’s going to take a win and assist to get them there after a 23-point choke job final week at dwelling in opposition to the Packers … The Lions are sitting within the No. 3 seed and may solely transfer up, however even attending to No. 2 is an excessive lengthy shot, so that they doubtless will relaxation some starters — until head coach Dan Campbell continues to be pissed off concerning the refereeing in his staff’s loss to Dallas final week and desires to take it out on the Vikings … Detroit has gained three of the final 4 conferences, together with in Week 16, a 30-24 victory wherein the Lions had a 143-17 edge in dashing yards … Detroit is 11-5 ATS, which is tied for the league greatest mark. The Vikings are 2-0-2 as a highway canine … I just like the Vikings to win this one — if they will get the 67-year outdated Warren Moon to be their quarterback for a day, as he nonetheless may be higher than what they’ve … The Lions are getting into the playoffs as a legit contender for the primary time in a very long time they usually’ll wish to go in on a excessive.

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TAKING: DETROIT -3.5

SCORE (O/U 45.5): Lions 27, Vikings 20

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (8-8) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (2-14)

LINE: Tampa Bay by 4.5

CHEWABLE: Tampa Bay is 7-1 ATS as a customer and can earn its third division title in a row with a victory over a Panthers staff that was shut out by the Twentieth-ranked defence final week. Carolina has scored greater than 18 factors simply as soon as in its previous 10 video games … The Bucs have gained eight of the final 10 conferences, together with a 21-18 victory wherein Baker Mayfield and Bryce (The Bust) Younger mixed for simply 343 passing yards … Solely two groups have allowed fewer passing yards than the Panthers, however in Week 13 they couldn’t cease Mike Evans, who had seven catches for 162 yards … Evans and RB Rachaad White, who’s seventh in yards from scrimmage (915 dashing, 531 receiving) will ship the Panthers into the winter with simply the second two-win season of their historical past. And also you surprise why staff proprietor David Tepper is throwing drinks at individuals.

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TAKING: TAMPA BAY -4.5

SCORE (O/U 37.5): Bucs 23, Panthers 10

DALLAS COWBOYS (11-5) at WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (4-12)

LINE: Dallas by 13

CHEWABLE: Due to the plummeting Eagles, the Cowboys can take the NFC East with a victory in opposition to a staff that’s tied with two others for the second-worst document within the league … The Commanders have didn’t cowl in 4 of 5 video games wherein they had been a 7-plus level canine, together with a 45-10 loss in Dallas in Week 12. Do they present up right here, for what needs to be Ron Rivera’s final gams as their coach? Does it matter? … The Cowboys are a weak 3-5 on the highway, each SU and ATS, however they’re 3-1-0 as away favourites so they typically don’t have hassle when visiting an inside squad … The Commanders have been winners in two of the final thrice Dallas has visited … Dallas QB Dak Prescott in opposition to the Commanders’ league-worst cross defence, and the Cowboys cross rush in opposition to Washington’s shaky offensive line, are two promoting options for the backers of the guests … At all times worry the backdoor cowl with large spreads, particularly in divisional video games, however the Commanders are 0-6-1 ATS at dwelling and have misplaced their final seven video games by a median rating of 34-18.

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TAKING: DALLAS -13

SCORE (O/U 46): Cowboys 34, Commanders 18

LOS ANGELES RAMS (9-7) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (12-4)

LINE: San Francisco by 4

CHEWABLE: Whereas the Niners are locked in as high seed and can relaxation gamers, the Rams’ playoff spot is undetermined. In the event that they win, they play subsequent week in opposition to the No. 3 seed, doubtless Detroit. In the event that they lose and Inexperienced Bay wins, they play subsequent week in opposition to the No. 2 seed, doubtless Dallas. All groups ought to wish to keep away from taking part in in Dallas, proper? So why are the Rams additionally resting starters, together with QB Matt Stafford, who would in all probability love to return again with a possibility to hang-out the Lions, his former staff? … Making his first look as a Ram will likely be Carson Wentz, who hasn’t performed since Jan. 1, 2023, when he led the Commanders to a 24-10 loss in opposition to Cleveland by throwing for simply 143 yards and getting picked off thrice … Beneath centre for the Niners will likely be Sam Darnold, who will likely be making his first begin since Jan. 8, 2023, when he accomplished 5 of 15 cross makes an attempt whereas throwing two picks as his Panthers defeated the Saints 10-7 … Both staff might win, after all, however how can one really feel comfy laying 4 factors, even whether it is with the Kyle Shanahan-coached 49ers?

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TAKING: L.A. RAMS +4

SCORE (O/U 41): Rams 21, Niners 20

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (11-5) at NEW YORK GIANTS (5-11)

LINE: Philadelphia by 5

CHEWABLE: The Eagles lock in as No. 5 seed if/when the Cowboys beat the Commanders … Philly additionally has misplaced 4 of its final 5, with the one win a 33-25 victory in New York in opposition to the Giants two weeks in the past … The Eagles have gained solely six video games by greater than 5 factors and 5 of them got here of their 7-1 begin … The Giants are 4-2-1 ATS as a house canine … The Eagles have gained the final 5 conferences and 27 of the final 32 … Tyrod Taylor will once more begin at QB for New York. Final week in opposition to the Rams, he threw for 319 yards and fell simply in need of main the staff to an upset victory. Over his profession, Taylor is 0-3 in opposition to the Eagles … I preserve anticipating Philly to repair itself, and that would occur at MetLife Stadium, however after their loss final week at dwelling to the Cardinals and getting outscored 29-10 within the second half, there’s simply no approach you’ll be able to lay factors in opposition to this division rival.

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TAKING: N.Y. GIANTS +5

SCORE (O/U 42): Eagles 30, Giants 27

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (8-8) at ARIZONA CARDINALS (4-12)

LINE: Seattle by 2.5

CHEWABLE: The Seahawks could make the playoffs with a win if the Bears beat the Packers … The Cardinals are coming off a 35-31 victory over the Eagles wherein they scored 29 second-half factors … Seattle’s rush defence has turned to mush, which makes a props guess on the over with James Conner’s dashing yards (70.5) a sensible transfer … Arizona has allowed 27 or extra factors in three video games in a row … Seattle is 5-2-1 ATS as guests … The Seahawks doubtless will likely be with out RB Kenneth Walker, and the downgrade to Zach Charbonnet is critical … Positive, the Cardinals might finish Seattle’s season, however 72-year-old Pete Carroll finds a solution to win what could possibly be his final regular-season sport.

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TAKING: ARIZONA +2.5

SCORE (O/U 47.5): Seahawks 30, Cardinals 28

DENVER BRONCOS (8-8) at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (7-9)

LINE: Las Vegas by 2.5

CHEWABLE: At stake is second place within the AFC West which, together with $3.99, will get you a bag of Lay’s Bar-B-Q chips. Whereas the season ends for each groups Sunday, the Raiders have performed effectively for coach Antonio Pierce, like they need the staff to take away the interim tag and provides him the job full time or one thing. Since he took over from Josh McDaniels they’re 4-4, and their final two losses have been by three factors … The Raiders opened the schedule with a 17-16 win in Denver, and Broncos head coach Sean Payton is 14-4 ATS in same-season revenge video games, however I’m nonetheless not backing Denver QB Jarrett Stidham as he makes his fourth profession begin in search of his second win, even whether it is with Aidan O’Connell because the opposing QB.

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TAKING: LAS VEGAS -2.5

SCORE (O/U 38): Raiders 17, Broncos 14

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (10-6) at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (5-11)

LINE: L.A. Chargers by 3.5

CHEWABLE: The Chiefs are locked in because the No. 3 seed, however does it matter if QB Patrick Mahomes performs? The woeful Chargers have dropped 4 in a row and 7 of their final eight, and they’re coming off 16-9 loss to Stidham. Until I missed a launch stating Andy Reid is beginning at QB and Steve Spagnuolo at rush finish, I don’t perceive why the Chiefs should not simply canine however canine by greater than a area aim … The Chiefs have gained the final 4 conferences and 16 of the final 19 … After such a topsy-turvy common season, the Chiefs will finish on a optimistic, even when they play backups a lot of the sport.

TAKING: KANSAS CITY +3.5

SCORE (O/U 35): Chiefs 23, Chargers 17

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