Africa has the world’s largest youth inhabitants. By 2030, 75% of the African inhabitants can be underneath the age of 35. The variety of younger Africans aged 15-24 is projected to achieve 500 million in 2080.
Whereas inhabitants dynamics fluctuate throughout the continent, most sub-Saharan international locations have a median age beneath 19. Niger is the youngest nation on the planet with a median age of 14.5, whereas South Africa, Seychelles, Tunisia and Algeria have median ages above 27.
These demographics are a possible power for development. Nonetheless, the potential of Africa’s demographic dividend has been overshadowed by issues amongst governments and worldwide donors concerning the relationship between massive youth populations, unemployment charges and political instability.
Many international locations with massive youth populations and excessive charges of youth unemployment and under-employment stay peaceable. However the dominant coverage narrative is that unemployed youth pose a menace to stability.
Additional, the position of youth in well-liked protest – corresponding to in Sudan in 2019 – has created excessive expectations about their position in countering autocratic governments and contributing to democracy.
As political scientists and sociologists, we’re involved in understanding the interplay between youth and autocratic regimes – particularly as elected autocracies are taking maintain in Africa.
Electoral autocracies are regimes elected into energy utilizing authoritarian methods. These embody manipulation of elections and repression of the opposition, unbiased media and civil society.
Our analysis focuses on the interactions between youth and regimes in Ethiopia, Mozambique, Uganda and Zimbabwe. All are circumstances of electoral autocracies.
These regimes are conscious of their massive youth populations and are generally challenged by them. Uganda’s Bobi Wine, a well-liked musician turned presidential candidate, is one instance.
The 4 international locations in our research have additionally been via civil wars, the place the victorious armed teams have taken energy and stayed in energy because the finish of the warfare. This has created a specific set of dynamics between the ageing insurgent governments and the youth majorities.
In autocratic contexts like these ones, efforts to empower youth can simply be manipulated to serve the pursuits of the regime. Some younger folks might resolve to play the sport and take up alternatives provided by regime actors. Others would possibly resist them. Some take up the alternatives, hoping it serves their very own and never the regime’s pursuits. Nonetheless, this would possibly reproduce types of patronage.
Learn extra: Abiy Ahmed gained energy in Ethiopia with the assistance of younger folks – 4 years later he is silencing them
All of this issues as a result of the way forward for democracy is at stake, and utilizing state-led alternatives would possibly contribute to authoritarian renewal.
Our analysis groups in every nation studied the vary of insurance policies that governments put in place to “cater” for the youth. They included loans for younger entrepreneurs, and organising youth councils and youth quotas in political establishments.
We discovered that youth-targeted methods – largely geared toward selling employment and political participation – are a part of the authoritarian rule e book in all 4 international locations we studied. Employment and entrepreneurship schemes have been open to abuse via ruling celebration patronage networks and channelled to regime supporters.
Not saving democracy
Our analysis discovered that younger folks in Ethiopia, Mozambique, Uganda and Zimbabwe felt aggrieved about these alternatives being channelled to regime supporters. Additionally they famous the dearth of alternatives to have a significant voice. Establishments that have been established to allow youth participation have been co-opted and lacked independence from governments.
Some younger folks specific their grievances via pro-democracy protests – like in Mozambique in October 2023. However total, Africa’s youth are usually not saving democracy.
Neither are they countering the deepening development of autocratisation on the continent, the place incumbent governments have more and more concentrated energy within the fingers of the chief. Our analysis has confirmed this in Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Ethiopia and Uganda.
Nation case research
In Zimbabwe, Zanu-PF has been in energy because the nation’s independence in 1980. The ruling celebration and lots of of its now ageing leaders use their historical past of getting been a part of the liberation warfare within the Nineteen Seventies to retain their maintain on energy.
They achieve this by creating narratives across the nation’s liberation historical past and patriotism, and accuse the “born-free” technology (these born after independence) of betraying the liberation warfare. This delegitimises any discontent younger folks might really feel. Zanu-PF targets younger folks amongst its wider repertoire of methods to take care of energy.
In Mozambique, the ruling celebration Frelimo has gained each election since 1992. The celebration has concentrated energy and sources within the fingers of the political elite. The youth proceed to be under-represented and have severe challenges in accessing sources. This, along with different battle dynamics, contributed to an insurgency within the northern area of Cabo Delgado from 2017. It is led by the novel spiritual group domestically known as Al-Shabaab, or generally “machababo” (the youth).
Youth-dominated protests in Ethiopia contributed to the 2018 fall of the ruling celebration that had been in energy since 1991. Additionally they led to the coming to energy of Abiy Ahmed that 12 months.
Mobilisation among the many youth has since been silenced. Solely loyalists get entry to job creation schemes. There has additionally been a militarising of youth-dominated ethnic actions. This was seen, as an example, with the Fano Amhara group within the warfare in Tigray in 2020-2022.
Uganda was a pioneer in institutionalising youth participation in decision-making. Youth engagement in political constructions is taken into account to be a instrument for presidency management. We discovered that younger politicians felt that this flawed system of illustration offered alternatives for mobilising each towards and in favour of the present regime. Younger candidates working for one of many youth quota seats in parliament, as an example, cannot simply evade ruling celebration patronage.
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Method ahead
Younger Africans are numerous. Nonetheless, they’ve typically been characterised as both violent or as changemakers and peace activists. These characterisations characterize reverse ends of a spectrum.
Our analysis undertaking engaged a variety of younger folks positioned and continuously shifting throughout completely different elements of the spectrum. This has enhanced our understanding of how they navigate and reply to the methods their regimes search to deal with the youth inhabitants.
In our view, analysis and coverage initiatives in the direction of younger folks in authoritarian states should acknowledge that well-intended youth interventions might reproduce authoritarian politics when they’re channelled to celebration loyalists.
Interventions that goal to advertise job creation and youth empowerment ought to monitor how youth contributors are chosen and funds disbursed to keep away from interference from partisan actors.
Lovise Aalen, Analysis Professor, Political Science, Chr. Michelsen Institute
Marjoke Oosterom, Analysis Fellow and Cluster Chief, Energy and Widespread Politics analysis cluster, Institute of Growth Research
